Energy That's Better · Net zero by 2050

Net zero by 2050 needs more power, smarter homes and all of us

Canada has committed to net zero by 2050. Ontario already needs more electricity than it can reliably supply in the years ahead, and power has become expensive to produce. Homes that waste less, make their own clean power and give back to the grid are part of the answer.

A family outside their home with solar panels on the roof
  • 2×Canada's grid capacity by 2050 under the federal plan8
  • 65%more electricity Ontario expects to need by 20506
  • 3,800 MWof new capacity Ontario needs by 20406
  • 23.5%of household bills now paid by the province11

How it works at home

Three upgrades that make a home part of the solution

Use the switches in each diagram to see the difference between winter and summer, before and after, and day and night.

One system for winter and summer

A heat pump moves heat instead of burning fuel: into your home in winter and out of it in summer.

  • Heats and cools with electricity
  • Cold-climate models built for Canadian winters
  • Pairs well with solar and batteries

More about heat pumps →

How it works
Heat pump diagram An outdoor unit and an indoor unit connected by refrigerant lines. In winter heat moves into the home; in summer it moves out. Inside 21 °C HEAT Outside −30 °C Outside 31 °C YOUR HOME OUTDOOR UNIT
Winter: the outdoor unit pulls heat out of the cold outside air, and the refrigerant carries it indoors.

What net zero means

Clean electricity, used for everything

Net zero by 2050 means Canada removes as much greenhouse gas as it emits. The path runs through electricity: make the grid clean, then use that power to heat homes and move vehicles instead of burning fuel.

  • Federal Clean Electricity Regulations set a path to a net-zero grid by 2050.12
  • Canada's electricity is already about 80% non-emitting, and the plan is to double the grid's capacity by 2050.8
  • Toronto targets net zero by 2040 and Ottawa by 2050.1314

The catch

More electrification means more demand

Heat pumps, electric vehicles, industry and data centres all add load at the same time. Ontario's grid operator forecasts demand growing 65% by 2050, and up to 92% if electrification speeds up.6

The problem: not enough power

Ontario's grid is heading for a supply gap

Rising demand, expiring supply contracts and nuclear reactors offline for rebuilds mean Ontario needs new power soon. The warnings aren't new: in 2019 the grid operator already expected a capacity need to arise in 2020 and grow by 2023.15

More gas while nuclear is rebuilt

Nuclear61%2018
Nuclear48.5%2025
Gas & other6%2018
Gas & other16.6%2025

OPG bought nearly 2,700 MW of gas plants in 2019 as Pickering's closure approached.1516 2018 figures are transmission-connected output; 2025 is the system-wide supply mix.

  1. 2024

    Pickering units 1 and 4 retire

    Two of Ontario's oldest reactors close.1

  2. Early 2026

    Darlington refurbishment finishes

    Ahead of schedule and under budget, adding about 30 years of service.2

  3. Sept 2026

    Pickering units 5 to 8 go offline

    Removed from service ahead of a $26.8 billion rebuild.3

  4. 2030s

    Bruce Power and Pickering rebuilds

    Units return through the decade, adding 30 or more years each.43

  5. End of 2030

    First small modular reactor

    The first of four BWRX-300 units at Darlington, 1,200 MW for the fleet.5

  6. 2032 to 2040

    Supply needs grow

    8.5 TWh of new energy needed by 2032, rising to 37 TWh and 3,800 MW of capacity by 2040.6

Your bill: expensive electricity

Power has cost more, and more of the cost is hidden

Ontario's electricity prices climbed for more than a decade, and a charge most people have never heard of became the biggest part of the commodity cost on many bills.

The Global Adjustment ballooned

Per year$650M2006
Per year$7B+2014

It pays generators the difference between market prices and their contract prices. Ontario's Auditor General forecast consumers would pay $133 billion in Global Adjustment from 2015 to 2032.20

When you use power matters

Overnight3.9¢11 p.m. to 7 a.m.
On-peak39.1¢weekdays 4 to 9 p.m.

Ontario's Ultra-Low Overnight plan, effective November 1, 2025.11

Time-of-use prices climbed

Off-peak2.7¢May 2008
Off-peak10.1¢Nov 2019
On-peak9.3¢May 2008
On-peak20.8¢Nov 2019

Regulated time-of-use prices per kWh, before rebates.17

Billions in subsidies to hold rates

Per year$5.6Bprojected, 2019-20
Per year$6.9B2022-23

Taxpayer-funded programs have kept electricity bills below their true cost.1921 Read more →

The problem: subsidies

Taxpayers are paying part of every electricity bill

Since November 1, 2025, the Ontario Electricity Rebate covers 23.5% of household, small business and farm bills, about $36 a month for a typical home.1122 Subsidies keep bills manageable, but they don't lower the real cost of the power system; they move it onto the provincial budget.

In early 2020, projected electricity subsidies jumped to $5.6 billion a year, $1.6 billion more than expected just months earlier.19

Read: Who really pays your hydro bill? →

  • $118.1 billionEstimated cost of Ontario's energy and electricity subsidy programs over 20 years21
  • $6.9 billionCost of those programs in 2022-2321
  • 23.5%Share of the pre-tax bill covered by the Ontario Electricity Rebate11
  • $5.6 billion a yearProjected subsidy cost in 2019-20, up 40% in one quarter19

What's needed

What it will take to reach net zero by 2050

No single fix closes the gap. It takes new clean power, a bigger grid, and homes and vehicles that use energy far better.

More clean generation

Nuclear refurbishments and new reactors, plus wind, solar, hydro and storage. Canada's plan projects 150 GW of new firm generation by mid-century.8

Bigger, smarter grids

Double the capacity of Canada's grid by 2050, with more transmission and storage.8

Efficiency first

Ontario's 2025-2027 program targets 900 MW of peak demand savings, the cheapest power is the power we don't need.6

Electric homes

Retrofits, heat pumps in place of fossil-fuel heat, and no oil heating in new buildings from 2028.9

Electric transportation

75% of new vehicle sales electric by 2035 and 90% by 2040.10

Skilled workers

130,000 high-skilled workers needed to build Canada's electricity system by 2050.8

Smart homes & smart cities

Homes so efficient they give power back

The grid of the future runs both ways. A smart home with a heat pump, solar and a battery can use far less power at peak, produce its own clean electricity, and send the extra to the grid. Multiply that across a neighbourhood and a city, and homes become part of the solution to Ontario's supply gap.

Net metering in Ontario

Send renewable electricity you don't use to your utility's grid and receive credits on future bills. Credits offset the electricity you use and carry forward for up to 12 months.7 Ontario also offers up to $5,000 for solar and up to $5,000 more for battery storage bundled with solar.23

Explore solar & batteries

Smart cities & the future

Cities are planning for net zero, and homes are part of the grid

Toronto aims for net-zero community emissions by 2040, including more heat pumps and more efficient buildings.13 Ottawa's Energy Evolution strategy targets net zero community-wide by 2050, and 2040 for the City's own operations.14

The grid of the future is two-way. Smart meters and time-of-use pricing reward using power off-peak, batteries store clean energy for when it's needed, and homes with solar help supply their neighbourhoods.

  • Net-zero citiesToronto by 2040, Ottawa by 2050
  • Shifting to off-peakOvernight power at 3.9¢ per kWh on Ontario's Ultra-Low Overnight plan11
  • Storage on the gridBatteries in homes and on the system smooth out peaks
  • Growing demand65% more electricity needed in Ontario by 20506

Better for everyone

Better for the world, our communities and your family

A better world

Efficient, electric homes cut wasted energy and the emissions that come from burning fuel.

Heat pumps

Better communities

Homes that use less at peak and give power back ease pressure on the local grid, and build skilled local jobs.

Careers

Better for families

More comfort and more control over energy costs, with rebates of up to $10,000 on qualifying upgrades.

Rebates

Advice built on data

A senior energy management consultant reviews your home's energy signature and time-of-use pattern first.

How it works

Make your home part of the solution

Book a free assessment by phone. We'll show you how your home can use less, make more and qualify for rebates.

Sources

Figures are as reported by the sources listed, at the dates shown. Older figures are included for historical context. Canadian Energy Standard is an independent company, not affiliated with any government, utility, generator or energy retailer named here.

  1. Ontario Power Generation, Pickering Nuclear Generating Station
  2. NucNet, Darlington refurbishment construction completed ahead of schedule and under budget (February 2026)
  3. insauga, $26.8 billion nuclear refurbishment to begin in Pickering early next year (August 2026)
  4. Bruce Power, Life-Extension Program and Major Component Replacement
  5. Ontario Power Generation, Darlington small modular reactors
  6. IESO, 2026 Annual Planning Outlook: Ontario's electricity system needs, 2027-2050 (March 2026)
  7. Ontario Energy Board, Net metering
  8. Global News, Canada aims to double electricity grid capacity by 2050 (May 2026)
  9. Natural Resources Canada, Canada Green Buildings Strategy
  10. Electric Autonomy Canada, Canada repeals EV Availability Standard, restores $5,000 vehicle incentives (February 2026)
  11. Ontario Energy Board, changes to electricity prices for households, small businesses and farms (November 1, 2025)
  12. Government of Canada, Clean Electricity Regulations
  13. City of Toronto, TransformTO Net Zero Strategy
  14. City of Ottawa, Energy Evolution
  15. Financial Post, OPG's gas-plant purchases partly prompted by shifting nuclear landscape (August 2019)
  16. Ontario Energy Board, Ontario's system-wide electricity supply mix: 2025 data
  17. Ontario Energy Board, historical time-of-use electricity prices, 2008-2019
  18. Ontario Energy Board, new electricity prices for households and small businesses (October 13, 2020)
  19. Toronto Star, Ontario's electricity subsidies surge by $1.6 billion (January 30, 2020)
  20. Financial Post, Court reinstates constitutional challenge to Ontario's global adjustment charge (December 2019), citing Ontario's Auditor General
  21. Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, Ontario's Energy and Electricity Subsidy Programs
  22. Government of Ontario, 2026 Ontario Budget, Chapter 1B
  23. Home Renovation Savings program
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