Natural gas prices and your heating bill: why they swing

Many Ontario homes heat with natural gas, and Ontario's power plants burn more gas while nuclear units are rebuilt. That makes natural gas prices matter twice for household energy costs.

Thirty years of swings

The benchmark North American price, Henry Hub, rose from about $2 per MMBtu in the early 1990s to peaks near $14 in 2005 and over $13 in 2008, then fell below $2 by 2020.¹

What drives the price

• Weather. Cold winters and hot summers raise demand for heating and for gas-fired power generation.²
• Production and storage. In late 2020, lower production was expected to drain storage faster than average through the winter.²
• Forecasts move fast. In October 2020 the U.S. Energy Information Administration expected prices to rise from an average of $2.07 in 2020 to $3.13 in 2021, and some analysts said a cold winter could push them to $5.²
• Seasons. Residential gas prices rise and fall each year, and typically sit several times higher than the wholesale benchmark.²

The link to electricity

Gas and other sources made up 16.6% of Ontario's electricity supply in 2025, up from 6% of transmission-connected output in 2018, and gas plants often set the price in the busiest hours.³⁴

Sources

Figures are as reported by the sources listed, at the dates shown. Older figures are included for historical context. Canadian Energy Standard is an independent company, not affiliated with any government, utility, generator or energy retailer named here.

1. Henry Hub natural gas price history, 1990-2020 (Bloomberg chart)
2. NGI, U.S. natural gas prices seen soaring in 2021 (October 2020), citing the U.S. Energy Information Administration
3. Ontario Energy Board, Ontario's system-wide electricity supply mix: 2025 data
4. Financial Post, OPG's gas-plant purchases partly prompted by shifting nuclear landscape (August 2019)
5. Natural Resources Canada, Canada Green Buildings Strategy

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